Metro Vancouver Real Estate Market Insights: Stats Centre Reports - September 2024

Metro Vancouver Real Estate Market Insights: Your Comprehensive Real Estate Update with Jersey Li ☀️

It's always sunny with me ☀️ This is your trusted REALTOR®, Jersey Li 😄!

Welcome back to another edition of the Stats Centre Report, your go-to source for the latest insights into the ever-evolving real estate market. Let’s dive into the trends shaping the landscape this September 2024.

Jersey's Market Feedback

Interest Rate

On September 4, 2024, we witnessed the third consecutive interest rate cut, with another 0.25% reduction. The next announcements are expected on October 23 and December 11, 2024, with the likelihood of one or two additional interest rate cuts on the horizon.

Price & Inventory:

The current market dynamics showcase a gradual yet steady inventory absorption, particularly for high-quality properties. While it may seem that the pace of sales is subdued from a broader perspective, the reality on the ground tells a different story. As a frontline realtor actively touring properties with my clients, I’ve observed that many of the most desirable homes are being snapped up swiftly, often with accepted offers that align closely with market expectations. These sales frequently occur under the radar, highlighting a trend where well-priced properties are moving quickly, often before regular buyers even get a chance to view them.

Despite this quiet absorption, the broader market still maintains a level of inventory that gives buyers options, although the selection is tightening as more prospective buyers enter the scene. For regular buyers who are not as tuned in to the subtle shifts, the pace of change may not yet feel pronounced. However, as inventory continues to be absorbed, the market dynamics are gradually shifting towards a seller’s market, especially in specific segments and neighbourhoods.

The current landscape suggests that while buyers still have some leverage, particularly with motivated sellers, the window for negotiating substantial discounts is narrowing. This underscores the importance of staying updated with market conditions and being ready to act swiftly when the right property appears. For sellers, the current conditions present a favourable environment to list, especially as buyer confidence seems to be slowly rebuilding in the wake of recent interest rate cuts.

If the trends continue, we could see a more competitive market emerge in the coming months, where prices may begin to rise as the balance between supply and demand shifts further. As the broader economic landscape evolves, including potential further interest rate cuts, the real estate market is likely to reflect these changes with increased activity and potential price adjustments.

Jersey's Market Prediction

As we move through September and October, the real estate market is likely to experience a temporary improvement in prices, with a noticeable uptick in the speed of sales. This positive momentum can be attributed to the recent interest rate cuts, which have already begun to alleviate some of the pressure on borrowing costs. For buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, this could represent a strategic opportunity to enter the market before potential price increases take hold. We’re seeing early signs that suggest a faster-paced market, where well-priced properties are attracting offers more quickly than earlier in the year.

Looking ahead, my forecast for 2025 and 2026 indicates that the market may be poised for another full round of growth. Several factors could contribute to this upward cycle, including continued adjustments to interest rates, economic recovery, and an overall increase in consumer confidence. As affordability gradually improves, we can expect more buyers to re-enter the market, driving demand higher. This influx of buyers could potentially outpace the available inventory, leading to increased competition and upward pressure on prices.

For sellers, this predicted upswing presents an opportune window to consider listing properties, particularly those that are well-maintained and located in high-demand areas. By timing their sales to coincide with these market conditions, sellers could maximize their returns as buyer activity intensifies.

However, it’s important to approach these predictions with a measured outlook. While the potential for market growth is strong, external factors such as economic policy changes, global market conditions, and local developments could influence the trajectory. Staying informed and agile will be key for both buyers and sellers looking to navigate the evolving landscape.

For buyers, the months ahead could represent one of the last opportunities to secure properties at relatively stable prices before the anticipated market upswing fully takes effect. Acting decisively and being prepared to move quickly on desirable properties will be crucial strategies in a market that is gradually heating up.

Overall, the next few years could mark the beginning of a new growth phase in the Metro Vancouver real estate market. With careful planning and timely actions, both buyers and sellers have the potential to benefit from the opportunities that lie ahead.

Sales Stats:

For a thorough examination of the intricacies of the real estate market in Metro Vancouver, I recommend accessing the comprehensive Stats Centre Report here.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reported that residential sales in the region totalled 1,904 in August 2024—a 17.1% decrease from the 2,296 sales recorded in August 2023 and 26% below the ten-year seasonal average of 2,572.

From a seasonal perspective, August is typically a slower month for sales than June or July, and this year was no different, noted Andrew Lis, GVR’s Director of Economics and Data Analytics. Sales remain holding, trending roughly 20% below the ten-year seasonal average. This suggests buyers still feel the pinch of higher borrowing costs despite two recent quarter percentage point reductions to the policy rate this summer.

New Listings and Active Inventory:

There were 4,109 detached, attached, and apartment properties newly listed on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver in August 2024—a 4.2% increase compared to the 3,943 properties listed in August 2023. However, this total was 1.7% below the ten-year seasonal average of 4,179.

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 13,812, a 37% increase compared to August 2023 (10,082) and 20.8% above the ten-year seasonal average of 11,432.

Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio:

The sales-to-active listings ratio for August 2024 across all property types—detached, attached, and apartments—stands at 14.3%. By property type, the ratio is 9.6% for detached homes, 18% for attached, and 17.2% for apartments. Historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12% for a sustained period, while prices often rise when the ratio exceeds 20% over several months.

Benchmark Prices and Sales by Property Type

• Detached Homes: Sales of detached homes in August 2024 reached 509, a 13.9% decrease from the 591 detached sales recorded in August 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,048,400—a 1.8% increase from August 2023, with no change compared to July 2024.

• Apartment Homes: Sales of apartment homes reached 1,012 in August 2024, a 20.3% decrease from 1,270 sales in August 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $768,200—a 0.1% decrease from August 2023, with no change compared to July 2024.

• Attached Homes: Attached home sales totalled 370 in August 2024, a 12.3% decrease compared to 422 sales in August 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,119,300—a 0.8% increase from August 2023 and a 0.5% decrease compared to July 2024.

Rentals Stats

The rental market report reveals a dynamic array of opportunities. To optimize rental returns, it is imperative to pinpoint underserved niches and leverage technological advancements in property management and tenant screening.

The rental market in Metro Vancouver continues to show dynamic shifts, with varying rates across different municipalities. Here’s a snapshot of the current rental landscape as of August 2024. In Burnaby, the average rent for an unfurnished one-bedroom apartment is $2,477, while a two-bedroom unit costs $3,170, and a three-bedroom unit costs $3,527. Coquitlam offers slightly lower rates with one-bedroom units at $2,052, two-bedrooms at $2,718, and three-bedrooms at $3,600. In Langley, rents are $2,130 for a one-bedroom, $2,577 for a two-bedroom, and $3,448 for a three-bedroom.

Navigating the rental market requires a keen understanding of these price points and trends. Whether you’re looking to rent in an affordable area like Surrey or in a premium locale such as West Vancouver, staying informed will help you make the best decisions for your needs.

Personal Assistance

Your Real Estate Journey, Your Way 🤝

Buyers’ hesitancy to enter the market, combined with new listing activity from sellers that aligns with historical averages, has allowed inventory to accumulate for several months, moving the market into balanced conditions. With the Bank of Canada’s recent decision to reduce the policy rate by another quarter percentage point, and with September typically seeing an increase in sales, the fall market could entice more buyers off the sidelines. We’ll watch the September data closely to see if they decide to enter the market.

Whether purchasing, selling, or renting, staying informed and prepared is crucial for success in the real estate market. I can offer personalized guidance and valuable insights at every stage of your journey. Please do not hesitate to contact me with any inquiries or for tailored advice. I wish you a productive house-hunting experience until we connect again!

Stay tuned for more updates, and remember, it’s always sunny with Jersey Li as your Realtor®! ☀️

Thank you for joining me on this Real Estate journey,